The Duckworth–Lewis–Stern method (DLS) method of determining the target for rain affected matches was introduced after the farcical revised target of 21 from 1 ball was set for South Africa versus England in the semi-final of the 1992 Cricket World Cup.  To calculate the DLS target requires just the number of overs and wickets remaining. Had DLS been applied in 1992 South Africa would have required only 4 runs to tie from the final ball.

To calculate future shopping centre returns also requires just two major inputs: the growth in rental income and the growth in costs (depreciation).   The ‘target’ for shopping centres (appropriate current yield) is certainly getting higher, with low growth or even further rental falls likely. The cost side of the equation is also a problem. Shopping centres are expensive to run and to maintain.  If the growth in costs exceeds the growth in rents, then net cash flow will be squeezed.

The figures to watch are therefore not just rental growth but also irrecoverable and capital costs. Of course, owners may choose to invest less in their centres, but this may be counterproductive if it results in lower rents and lower occupancy rates.

Based on current pricing, shopping centres may be facing their own equivalent of scoring 21 runs from a single ball.