Maths is complicated. However, many things are complicated that are not regarded as a Black Box. The maths behind flight is complicated but most of us are prepared to get on a plane.

It is a lack of transparency that creates the Black Box.

If risk estimates are driven by factors we recognise in our everyday working lives, which we understand and have some control over, then risk management is not a Black Box.

Tracking those same factors, like the black box on a plane, is the best way of managing risk and increasing understanding in risk estimates. For real estate the factors are familiar: leverage, structure, growth in rent, costs, tenant retention, void clearance rates etc.